APPLYING TIME-SERIES MODELS TO PREDICT OUTBREAKS OF APHIDS AND PATHOGENS IN CROPS AND NON-CROP WEEDY HOSTS

The primary goal of this project is to develop forecasting tools to predict outbreaks of vector-borne plant pathogens in annual cropping systems. The majority of crop plant viruses are transmitted by insects, but these insects feed on a wide range of cultivated and non-cultivated (weedy) plants. For many production systems, effective pest management requires knowing when pests will arrive, but predictive models for pest arrival time are lacking. In this project we will use pea aphid and pea-enation mosaic virus (PEMV) as a model system to use data from crop and non-crop hosts in building time-series forecasting tools. Aphid viruses are a major crop pest in Pulse production and other systems where legumes are used in rotation, but a reliable predictive model is not available yet. In Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho, aphid and virus outbreaks are highly variable across time and space, likely to to the use of multiple non-crop host plants in addition to crop hosts.To this end, we will complete three complementary objectives: (1) use landscape-scale surveys of pea aphids and PEMV to track temporal dynamics of outbreaks; (2) determine how invasion of hairy vetch facilitates PEMV infection in pulses; and (3) build and validate epidemiological models of PEMV risk. Our project will produce a framework for tracking vectors and vector-borne pathogens at the interface of managed and unmanaged habitats, and data will be disseminated to decision-makers through a well-established decision support system. Our project field surveys and diagnostic testingwill be completed by a full time postdoctoral scholar anda PhD student working in the Department of Entomology with co-PDDavid Crowder, and forecasting models and extension support tools using these data will be developed by the PD, Robert Clark.