COMMERCIALIZING PROBABILISTIC WILDLAND FIRE PREDICTION WITH PYRECAST

The primary goal of this project is to enhance the PyreCast fire modeling software to make it marketable to the insurance, electric utility, and emergency management sectors across the United States. This enhancement aims to provide a comprehensive fire modeling capability that includes onboard forecast skill assessment, robust software support, unmatched uncertainty quantification, and public-facing products. By adhering to the principles of open science, the project seeks to foster trust, collaboration, and engagement, thus setting PyreCast apart from competition while supporting business models aimed at profit generation.ObjectivesIntegrate Phase I research into PyreCast interface: Update the software to generate uncertainty estimates and revise the user interface to incorporate uncertainty animations into the 'active fire' tool, allowing users to connect predicted burn probability with the probability of losing resources and assets.Develop and apply objective methods to evaluate and communicate the accuracy of fire behavior forecasts: This includes probabilistic forecasts, and displaying these on PyreCast. The aim is to provide quantitative forecast evaluations, including deterministic and probabilistic assessments, addressing gaps in current fire behavior modeling practices.Integrate CAWFE model into PyreCast: Automate selection, domain configuration, drawing needed inputs, execution, benchmarking, and processing of model outputs to establish feasibility for including more complex dynamic modeling.Improve PyreCast software and computer architecture: Enhance computational capacity, system speed, and reliability to ensure improved uptime, accommodating new clients and geographies for displaying weather, active fire, risk, and other features.Expand Geographic Scope of PyreCast to include Alaska and Hawaii: Develop new software code and user interface elements to support expanding the geographic extent of active fire and risk forecasts to these regions, increasing reach to additional wildfire situation awareness markets.Develop De-energization Decision Support Portal in PyreCast: Create a user-authenticated portal and interface within PyreCast to display areas of concern relative to fire weather metrics, risk forecasts, and de-energization thresholds, assisting risk managers in electric utilities.Complete Go-to-Market/Commercialization Strategic Plan: Refine and finalize the commercialization plan by expanding understanding of potential competitors, developing a marketing strategy and revenue forecasts, and strategizing staffing and support for PyreCast under different business models.These objectives are specific, focused, quantifiable, and attainable within the project's duration and available resources.