Development of Computer Models for Ranking the Public Health Impact of Foodborne Hazards

This work will build on the work that has already been done on our prototype risk-ranking model. To enhance and disseminate the existing model, we will undertake the following specific tasks: Task 1: Incorporate Economic Valuation of Additional Pathogens Task 2: Incorporate the Health Utility Index (HUI) into Health Valuation Task 3: Incorporate Uncertainty into Model Inputs and Outputs Task 4: Develop a Shorthand Risk-Based Food Attribution Method Task 5: Facilitate Consensus Development for Food Categories Task 6: Establish Web-based Interface.
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Illness caused by foodborne pathogens remains an important cause of illness and death in the United States, with significant economic costs. In order to prioritize how available funds should be spent, it is critical that we know where the problems are: i.e., that we know which combinations of pathogenic microorganism and food have the greatest impact on public health. This is not an easy task: the food production system is complex, and major problems have been encountered in trying to create the models and databases needed to address this question. The Food Safety Research Consortium (FSRC), a group of seven leading universities and institutes, was established to conduct and encourage multi-disciplinary research to build an integrated "system" understanding of foodborne illness and decision tools for prioritizing risk reduction opportunities. As part of this process, the FSRC has developed a prototype mathematical model for ranking the public health impact of specific pathogen-food combinations. The current proposal will allow further development of the FSRC prototype mathematical model for ranking the public health impact of specific pathogen-food combinations. This will include incorporation of additional economic parameters; the inclusion of estimates of uncertainty; further work on a shorthand risk-based food attribution method; facilitation of consensus development for food categories; and establishment of a web-based interface for the model.
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The expected outcome is a scientifically valid, computer-based risk ranking model that will be readily accessible to decision makers in government and industry, and that will have utility in policy analysis and priority setting, research, education, and extension activities. While the FSRC has make significant progress in this direction with its current Foodborne Illness Risk Ranking Model, it remains a prototype model with clear weaknesses that limit its utility; and, without a good web interface, its accessibility is also limited. Design elements of the model will be presented for discussion and critique at workshops (early spring 2005 on posthoc evaluation of food safety interventions) and the final national conference (June or September 2005) currently planned by Iowa State University/FSRC as part of the CSREES-funded project "Prioritizing Opportunities to Reduce Foodborne Disease." We anticipate that this material, as it is finalized, will also be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Once a web interface is in place, we will also be monitoring "hits" on the model web site: utility of the model can be gauged, at least in part, by the number of persons accessing the model.