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<OL> <LI> Expand the foot-and-mouth disease model to additional areas outsidethe well-defined 3-county area in Califonia.<LI> Continue modifying the model to more accurately reflect realistic scenarios likely to be encountered if FMD were to enter the US and to make the model more "user-friendly" by improving the graphic user interface (GUI). <LI>Modify the model to enable it to run on a cluster of computers to permit evaluation of extensive amounts of spatially-referenced data. <LI>Refine the risk-mapping feature of the model to facilitate identification of high-risk areas.<LI> Validate the model using data from the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK.<LI> Evaluate alternative supplemental FMD-eradication strategies.
NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most infectious and devastating animal diseases. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the spread and control of FMD if it were to enter the US.
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APPROACH: Livestock facility locations and herd sizes will be determined and contact data collected throughout California. Contact parameters will be estimated using statistical distribution fitting techniques. In collaboration with regulatory veterinarians, alternative control strategies will be identified and integrated into the model. Code will be written for the model to permit it to be run on a cluster of computers and make it more user friendly. A Beowulf cluster will be investigated as the computer cluster of choice. Alternative systems will also be explored. Collaborators in the UK will be utilized to generate an updated database of herd locations and epidemic information to be used to validate our model on a selected number of regional outbreaks. We will interact closely with USDA and California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA) veterinarians to help us evaluate alternative control strategies that will be included in our model.