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Food Biosecurity: Modeling the Health, Economic, Social and Psychological Consequences of Intentional and Unintentional Food Contamination

Objective

<OL> <LI>To identify and measure the economic costs associated with incidents that threaten or appear to threaten food safety; <LI>Toinvestigate social disruptions resulting from biohazards and policies designed to prevent them and develop methods to estimate the cost of such disruptions; <LI>To analyze tradeoffs between the costs of implementing specific policies and the risk-based costs of not implementing them; <LI>To examine insurance and liability issues; <LI>To identify the criteria sought by terrorists to maximize economic damage from an agroterrorist attack and understand the relationships between terrorist activities (threats and actions) and consumer behavior, attitudes and risk perceptions; <LI>To apply game theory to relevant and realistic scenarios to form a basis for decision making and planning; <LI>To analyze strategies of redundancy and other security measures that minimize vulnerability; <LI>To assess potential targets in terms of vulnerability and desirability to terrorists; <LI>To address related issues of risk, uncertainty, animal and plant health, insurance under the more general heading of biosecurity.

More information

Non-Technical Summary: This research investigates the economics of terrorism and fear on the agricultural and food sector and investigates the notion of consumer hysteresis, a heuristic that explains how consumers respond to threats and fear, and the path dependency in consumption patterns following an agroterrorist threat. The research develops economic models of fear, and identifies how economics can be used as a weapon, and how the theory of games can be applied to minimize impact and enhance security. Simulations using a general computable equilibrium model will be used to investigate the welfare impacts of several agroterrorist events. <P> Approach: This research is rooted in economics and therefore the principle approach will be one of economic assessment and the development of economic theory. Analysis of consumer response will be conducted using existing survey data, econometric, and statistical analysis. Regional impacts will be conducted using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (GTAP) obtained from Purdue University

Investigators
Turvey, Calum
Institution
Cornell University
Start date
2006
End date
2011
Project number
NYC-121318
Accession number
207609