An official website of the United States government.
Washington and the Pacific Northwest have a long history of food safety and infectious disease outbreaks. From the 1940's and 1950s radionuclides were released (at times intentionally) from facilities at the Hanford Site near Richland, WA. Fresh fruits, vegetables, milk, and other products, which were contaminated, entered the food chain. Other landmark events include the 1989 controversy regarding the use of systemic insecticide Aldicarb in potato production, the Alar scare involving apples in 1989, and the 1993 the E. coli outbreak in Jack in the Box restaurants. The isolated BSE incidences in 2003 decimated international trade and exportation of beef products from the United States, causing some $5 billion dollars in economic losses. <P> General Goals: 1) To contribute to the theoretical and empirical literature related to domestic and international demand, supply, and welfare measures of commodity markets (crop and/or livestock) and product quality.<P> 2) Provide policymakers and industry with qualitative and quantitative analysis of food safety and infectious disease impacts on commodity markets (domestic and international), and on the welfare of households, communities and regions. <P>3) To contribute to the econometric and quantitative analysis literature on empirical and policy analysis. <P>Specific Objectives: 1) Investigate the impact of food safety information on price formation of meat products in the US. <P>2) Evaluate the impact of invasive species and endemic disease outbreaks (crop and/or livestock) on agricultural households and regions in the U.S. and in other countries.<P> 3) Evaluate the impact of invasive species and disease outbreaks on timing and duration of trade bans. <P>Expected Impacts: This research benefits academics, policymakers, industry groups, consumers and producers in the state of Washington and across the world. If a livestock disease outbreak such as FMD, RVF or ECF would occur, reducing the time taken to return to pre-outbreak trade status is critical. Each day of restricted trade would cost W.A. and the U.S. millions of dollars. Past evidence on outbreaks indicate that if there exists much uncertainty at all about the biological nature or spread (either through natural or economic systems) of the disease, then trade partners have and will continue to appeal to SPS arguments through the WTO in attempt to leverage the event to gain trade advantage. <P>Research from this project will help reduce uncertainties about the biological or economic systems surrounding disease outbreaks in livestock, and it will shorten significantly the duration to return to trade and dramatically reduce cost. Publications will be targeted to top quality academic journals and key policy forums.
NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY:<BR> Contaminants in the food system and the environment, including invasive species, have created landmark events across the nation and the world. For example, E. Coli in food and pesticide residue in agricultural products distort trade, both domestically and across international borders, and threaten farm assets as well as human health. Washington and the Pacific Northwest have a long history of food safety and infectious disease outbreaks. The importance of such landmark events has demonstrated that there is limited understanding of potential economic impacts of food safety and invasive species contamination incidents on domestic and international markets. The methodological approach is to extend current economic and quantitative models to appropriately incorporate and measure the impacts of food safety or infectious diseases (and other invasive species) outbreaks on domestic and international commodity markets. Investigations will continue at the aggregate level into market impacts. Moreover, and for example, because the links at the agricultural household level between livestock health and human health are not well understood (and the economic links are therefore not well understood either), emphasis will also focus on disaggregated household impacts. Analysis at the more disaggregate level is important for targeted responses and/or policies. Indeed, understanding the impacts of food safety events on domestic and international market demand and supply (aggregate and disaggregate), the associated distribution processes, and the institutions and laws governing those processes will contribute to the basic knowledge necessary for preventing, prioritizing, mitigating, and responding to catastrophic events.
<P> APPROACH:<BR> Methods: The approach is to extend current economic and quantitative models to appropriately incorporate and measure the impacts of food safety outbreaks or infectious diseases (and other invasive species) on domestic and international commodity markets. Examining the impacts of food safety and invasive species on trade and commodity markets has been a topic of considerable interest to economists [see Foster and Just (1989); Thomsen and McKenzie (2001); Carter, Chalfant, and Goodhue (2004); Piggott and Marsh (2004); Marsh, Schroeder, and Mintert (2004)]. More specifically, Piggott and Marsh (2004), developed economic and empirical tools to evaluate the effect of food safety information on quantity demand for meat products in the US. Alternatively, the appropriate means to measure the impact of food safety information on price formation remains a topic of future research. Zhao et al (2006, 2007) and Nogueira et al (2011) demonstrate link intertemporal bioeconomic models with domestic and international markets to evaluate the impacts of disease outbreaks. However, the links at the agricultural household level between livestock health and human health are not well understood, and the economic links are therefore not well understood either. A recent study by the Department of Homeland Security (NBAF 2010) indicates there is a substantial void of information on many of the most potential devastating livestock diseases, which may be inadvertently or purposely be released in the U.S. [e.g., Rift Valley Fever (RVF), East Coast Fever (ECF)]. Many of these infectious livestock diseases are endemic to other regions of the world such as Africa. Livestock holders must deal with them almost daily in agricultural production, consumption, and trade. In turn, the global economy facilitates the ease with which infectious diseases can be distributed across the globe by travel and trade. A better understanding of physical and economic dynamics of these diseases within endemic regions of the world at the household, community, and country level offers unique opportunities. Collaboration with the WSU Allen School for Global Animal Health, foundations, nonprofits (GalvMED) and international agencies (CDC-Kenya) will be leveraged to investigate infectious disease dynamics and economic outcomes and to support effective interventions on the ground in these countries. Moreover, this research is crucial to learn and then translate technology and information back to the U.S. and to the state of Washington to better assess and prepare for potential disease outbreaks domestically.