Global Models and Surveillance to Forecast Risk of Food-and-Mouth Disease

NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY: The goal of the project is to demonstrate proof of principle for global surveillance models in predicting new occurrences of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). This study will develop prototypes for such systems by capturing necessary data on selected countries and developing models to predict risk of FMD.

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APPROACH: FMD related data will be obtained for each country, which will be used to develop spatial models of FMD prevalence and incidence. Bayesian inferences, conjoint analysis and GIS methods will be applied. Risk assessment and Bayesian hierarchical survival models will be used to develop models estimating risks of FMD entering the U.S. Monte Carlo simulations and Markov chain models will be considered.
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PROGRESS: 2003/08 TO 2008/07<BR>
OUTPUTS: USDA continued this project number under the same title but following project number: CALV-2007-05035 09/15/2007 to 02/14/2009. The results have been disseminated through a web based system. This project has helped develop the FMD global surveillance program, particularly in aspects related to development of the FMD BioPortal system (http://fmd.ucdavis.edu/bioportal/) In addition to dissemination of information via the laboratory website (www.fmd.ucdavis.edu) and via the BioPortal system (www.fmd.ucdavis.edu/bioportal), information collected on the project has been delivered using a web-based system funded in part by this project referred to as the FMD News. The FMD News is a real time web search service provided by the FMD Lab to identify and capture FMD-related news items appearing worldwide and to direct the information to those interested in global FMD events, directly via email or via the BioPortal. FMD News items represent both official news releases, such as from OIE or governments, and unofficial opinions, commentary, or reports by individuals or the press (see: http://fmd.ucdavis.edu/index.phpid=1). The FMD News offers an opportunity to obtain a global situational awareness of FMD using soft information, as well as some official information. Incorporation of FMD News items into the BioPortal allows tracking, mapping, and management of the information for regions or countries or of specific topics, such as vaccination, trade embargoes, or specific control campaigns. From January 1st through December 31st, 2007, 2343 FMD news items have been delivered to more than 200 subscribers in five continents Formal and informal instruction was provided on this work in 9 presentations at 5 workshops or meetings. Presentations at the AAVLD and USAHA meetings were particularly important because Extension, USDA, and State Veterinarians and state diagnostic veterinarians were in attendance. Twelve publications, which are the primary means by which scientific knowledge was communicated through the formal process of peer reviewed publications, have been directly or indirectly funded in part by this project. Project continued under new project number. <BR>
PARTICIPANTS: Mark Thurmond (PD/co-PD), Emeritus Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology, University of California in Davis, and Andres Perez (PD/co-PD), Assistant Professional Researcher in Epidemiology, University of California in Davis, and Tim Carpenter, Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology, supervised and guided the overall project, including evaluating sources and types of data, developing conceptual model strategies, maintaining frequent contacts and meetings with collaborators and personnel, and maintaining direction and scheduling of activities. Rebecca Garabed, post doctoral researcher, Aniel Santos and Rebecca Parker, analysts, and Zachary Whedbee, programmer, helped to organize databases, to develop models, and to write codes and programs. David Paton, Head FAO World Reference Laboratory for FMD, Pirbright, UK, Luis Rodriguez, research leader of the ARS Foreign Animal Disease Research Unit (FADRU) at Plum Island Animal Disease Center, and Guido Konig, Molecular Virologist, INTA Castelar, Argentina, have expert knowledge on the worldwide occurrence, diagnosis, and control of FMD. They provided specific epidemiological information on FMD virus isolates that were sequenced at their laboratories and that were included in data analyzed in the proposed research. Wesley Johnson, Professor of Statistics, University of California in Irvine, and Adam Branscum, Professor of Statistics, University of Kentucky, provided guidance to the analysts in the development of basic models, and writing papers and reports. <BR>
TARGET AUDIENCES: In addition to the international research community, target audiences are national and international animal health stakeholders, such as livestock producers and animal products companies, international animal health organizations, such as OIE, FAO, World Bank, and PAHO, and departments, agencies, and ministries of national governments that are involved in animal health and that require information on global animal health issues related to FMD. For the U.S., these agencies include the state departments of animal health, such as CDFA for California, and the USDA, DHS, Department of Defense, State Department, CIA, and FBI. <BR>EFFORTS: In addition to dissemination of information via the laboratory website (www.fmd.ucdavis.edu) and via the BioPortal system (www.fmd.ucdavis.edu/bioportal), information collected on the project has been delivered using a web-based system funded in part by this project referred to as the FMD News. The FMD News is a real time web search service provided by the FMD Lab to identify and capture FMD-related news items appearing worldwide and to direct the information to those interested in global FMD events, directly via email or via the BioPortal. FMD News items represent both official news releases, such as from OIE or governments, and unofficial opinions, commentary, or reports by individuals or the press (see: http://fmd.ucdavis.edu/index.phpid=1). The FMD News offers an opportunity to obtain a global situational awareness of FMD using soft information, as well as some official information. Incorporation of FMD News items into the BioPortal allows tracking, mapping, and management of the information for regions or countries or of specific topics, such as vaccination, trade embargoes, or specific control campaigns. From January 1st through December 31st, 2007, 2343 FMD news items have been delivered to more than 200 subscribers in five continents Formal and informal instruction was provided on this work in 9 presentations at 5 workshops or meetings. Presentations at the AAVLD and USAHA meetings were particularly important because Extension, USDA, and State Veterinarians and state diagnostic veterinarians were in attendance. Twelve publications, which are the primary means by which scientific knowledge was communicated through the formal process of peer reviewed publications, have been directly or indirectly funded in part by this project.
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IMPACT: 2003/08 TO 2008/07<BR>
Countries and agencies need to have a real-time global situational awareness for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and to be able to estimate in real time or near real time elevated risks of FMD so that appropriate measures can be taken to prevent or mitigate disease and its impact. One of the strategies for early detection of and response to FMD is that of global surveillance, which would aim to seek out specific information about new FMD cases, changing risks of FMD, and genomic changes in the FMD virus as necessary in planning and preparing for an FMD incursion. Although there has been considerable discussion about the needs and prospects for a global surveillance system for FMD, little in the way of formal action has taken place to create such a system. We have been developing a system, referred to as the FMD BioPortal, that is aimed at providing real time information, analysis, and visualization of FMD surveillance and monitoring data. The FMD BioPortal was developed initially as a collaborative effort of the FMD World Reference Laboratory at Pirbright, U.K., the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the University of Arizona, and the FMD Laboratory at the University of California, Davis. Version 1.0 was made operational in 2007. An initial goal was to create a Web-based system that would make all FMD-related data presently banked at the Pirbright laboratory available to the public. A primary objective was to be able to apply basic search and analytic tools to the data, including graphic and tabular presentation and spatial-temporal clustering analysis, and to be able to download selected records. Since its first release, additional databases have been captured by the FMD BioPortal, including FMD virus genomic data from GenBank and weekly in country incident data from OIE (version 2.0). Major systems components of the FMD BioPortal include secure, real-time data transfer, data analysis modules, and interactive visualization tools that allow for integrated analysis and display of epidemiological and genomic sequence data, including linkages with Google Earth. Another version of the FMD BioPortal, which is planned for January 2008, will have additional functionality to access models for real-time development and comparison of phylogenetic trees of virus isolates using FMDV sequence data. One analysis module allows for user adjustment of a threshold genetic distance between any two isolates to assess genetic relatedness among FMD virus strains, using a phylogenetic tree display. Development of the FMD BioPortal represents an important step forward in realizing a goal of global infectious disease surveillance and in recognizing that global surveillance will not be possible without a system for international real time information sharing and analysis. USDA continued this project number under the same title but following project number: CALV-2007-05035 09/15/2007 to 02/14/2009.