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The total number of microorganisms, or of specific types, which are encountered in raw beef or dairy products for example tend to fluctuate. Usually such daily or hourly fluctuations are within a specified range and hence raise little or no safety concern. Only occasionally, and in some cases without an apparent cause the numbers encountered are unusually high and may be considered a safety problem. We plan to analyze the fluctuations pattern, and by mathematical models and statistical methods, to estimate the probability of the occurrence of such an outburst.
In other words, we propose to convert the apparently random sequence of counts into a set of probabilities of encountering outbreaks of a magnitude of safety concern. These calculated probabilities can then be used as indication of an impending microbial outbreak, and as a tool to assess quantitatively the efficacy of preventive methods in reducing the risk.