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<p>Our overarching goal is to provide small- to large-scale corn growers with low-cost soil C assessment and greenhouse (GHG) accounting tools, and provide policymakers with an evaluation of the current and long-term costs and benefits of various policy incentives for this sector of the agricultural economy. Collectively, these new tools will promote climate change mitigation, optimize farm productivity in the face of adapting to a changing climate, and have applications beyond corn production systems. Specific Objectives: </p>
<p>1)Regionally validate and enhance two crop-soil simulation models, DayCent and Precision Nitrogen Management (PNM), for estimating soil C, N, and GHG emission dynamics across a range of soil, climate and management conditions. </p>
<p>2)Develop and test low-cost, reliable measurement-based approaches to quantify soil C at farm to regional scales. </p>
<p>3)Test and implement web-based tools derived from the DayCent and PNM models for farm-level C, N and GHG accounting and management. </p>
<p>4)Use regionally downscaled climate scenarios and the DayCent and PNM models to analyze regional impacts of historical and future climate change scenarios, land use, and management practices on GHG emissions, soil C sequestration and corn yields. </p>
<p>5)Use an economic equilibrium model, in conjunction with climate and crop-soil models (Objective 4), to evaluate the current and long-term costs and benefits of various policy incentives for mitigation in this sector of the agricultural economy. </p>
<p>Major Milestones by Year: </p>
<p>YEAR 1 (2011): -Compile historical climate data for focus regions (NY, CO, IA), and initiate GCM regional downscaling -Compile geospatial databases for landscape stratification, soil C assessment site selection, GIS mapping -Utilize regional GHG emissions and soil C data for validation of DayCent and PNM models </p>
<p>YEAR 2 (2012): -Complete regional validation of DayCent and PNM, and integrate into COMET-Farm and Adapt-N tools for C, N, and GHG accounting and management -Initial evaluation of geostatistical models for reducing sample numbers for soil C assessment </p>
<p>YEAR 3 (2013): -COMET-Farm and Adapt-N tool evaluation by users, and subsequent fine-tuning -Continue soil sampling and geostatistical model evaluation </p>
<p>YEAR 4 (2014): -Complete regional analysis of climate change effects on GHG emissions and soil C change in relation to soil and crop management -Complete initial economic analysis of policy incentive options and climate change -Submit initial peer-reviewed papers from project; other outreach </p>
<p>YEAR 5 (2015) -Complete integrated analysis of economic, GHG, and soil C implications of various policy and land management options in the context of a changing climate -Final field testing and dissemination of COMET-Farm and Adapt-N accounting and management tools -Final field testing and dissemination of low-cost soil sampling and analysis optimization tool -Submit peer-reviewed papers from project; other outreach to farmers, extension educators, scientists, policy-makers, etc.</p>
<p>NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY:<br/> Only a small number of farmers have a clear understanding of management effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and soil carbon (C) sequestration. Many have concerns that mitigation efforts would reduce profits or increase risks, and so are reluctant to become engaged or support policies that would promote mitigation. Mitigation management options for corn production systems are many and include: reducing tillage (reduces carbon dioxide loss from soils); improving fertilizer nitrogen (N) use efficiency (reduces loss of nitrous oxide, a potent GHG, from soils); improving farm energy efficiency; using renewable energy sources; winter cover-cropping (increases carbon (C) sequestration); adjusting rotation crops and land use. Many mitigation options could potentially increase farm profits, and also include environmental, food safety, and
sustainability co-benefits, such as improving soil health by increasing soil organic matter, and protecting soil and water resources. One major challenge to fully realizing agricultural mitigation potential is monitoring soil C change on soils with inherent high soil variability. Market solutions to incentivize mitigation face unique challenges such as costs of monitoring and verification, valuation of environmental benefits, and developing equitable and transparent mechanisms for distribution of C offset revenues. Our overarching goal is to provide small- to large-scale corn growers with new farm-level C, N, and GHG accounting and management decision tools, and provide policymakers with an evaluation of current and long-term costs and benefits of policy incentive options within the context of a changing climate. Our project will focus on three regions of the U.S. (NY, IA, CO) with
distinct climate, soil, and scale of corn production systems. Our research team includes climate modelers, crop and soil scientists, biogeochemical modelers, and economists. We will use an approach that utilizes and integrates: strategic soil sampling for C assessment; crop and soil simulation models that predict yield, GHG losses, and soil C sequestration; regionally downscaled climate projections; and policy evaluation with an economic equilibrium model. A low-cost soil C assessment tool involving remote sensing, soil and land-use databases, and statistical techniques will be developed. Infrared spectroscopy and other rapid methods for estimating soil C will be evaluated in addition to conventional approaches. We will regionally validate and improve COMET-Farm, a web-based farm C and GHG accounting and management tool, and Adapt-N, a real-time weather-based farm N management tool that
also provides information on corn yield and GHG emissions. Our project will provide a regional- and national-scale integrated analysis of economic, GHG, and soil C implications of various policy and land management options in the context of a changing climate. Collectively, the new tools developed by our project will promote mitigation, optimize farm productivity in the face of adapting to a changing climate, and will have applications beyond corn production systems, such as USDA national soil C assessment efforts.
<p>APPROACH: Our project will develop new management tools and evaluate policy options to create widespread incentives for adoption of best management practices for GHG mitigation and soil C sequestration. We will focus on three regions of the U.S. (New York, Iowa, Colorado) with distinct climate, soil, and corn production systems. Our research team includes climate modelers, crop and soil scientists, biogeochemical modelers, and economists. We will develop new tools for: determining an optimum low-cost soil sampling analysis strategy focused on C assessment; model-based farm-level accounting and management of C, N and GHG emissions; and evaluation of policy incentive options for GHG mitigation and soil C sequestration in corn cropping systems. Existing data from long-term field sites in each region will be used to enhance and regionally validate the process models
used for two farm management tools, COMET-Farm (focused on GHG and soil C accounting) and Adapt-N (focused on soil and weather-based N management optimization for corn). In addition, these management tools will be fine-tuned based on field validation on small- to large-scale commercial corn farms. Satellite imagery and geospatial databases on soils, land use, and management will serve as an integrating mechanism between process models and field measurements. Multivariate geospatial landscape stratification, kriging, and other statistical techniques will be used to identify cost-effective soil sampling protocols. Methods for soil C estimation will include rapid field and laboratory spectroscopy as well as conventional methods such as total C by combustion analysis and percent organic matter by loss-on-ignition. The model-measurement framework will be used to evaluate potential soil C
change and GHG emissions for selected management and climate change scenarios at the farm and regional scales. An economic equilibrium model will evaluate several economic/policy incentive options in relation to valuation of sequestered C and GHG emission reductions, regional socio-economic differences, and climate change scenarios. Many aspects of this project will be closely linked with the USDA/NRCS Soil Survey Division's nationwide program to develop a comprehensive, scientifically and statistically valid inventory of soil C stocks for the U.S.. This project directly addresses, with a robust national effort, research priority (1) of the AFRI A3141 Program by integrating coupled climate-agriculture models and technologies into decision support tools for small- to large-scale corn growers that will facilitate adaptation to climate change in a manner that also promotes GHG emissions
reductions, increases soil C sequestration, and optimizes N management. Integration of the economic and policy analyses with the climate and crop-soil modeling aspects of our project will address research priority (3) of the AFRI A3141 by providing an evaluation of the current and long-term costs and benefits of various policy incentives for mitigation in this sector of the agricultural economy.
<p>PROGRESS: 2012/04 TO 2013/03<br/>OUTPUTS: The Adapt-N tool, one component of our project, was selected as the Best New Product of the Year 2012 by AgProfessional Magazine, a leading publication related to agronomic and business management. Continued field testing of the tool in NY and IA in 2011 and 2012 as part of a complimentary USDA Conservation Innovation Grant (H van Es, lead PI) found that N application rates were reduced on average by 60 lbs. per acre, N losses to the environment were reduced 5 to 120 lbs. per acre, and Adapt-N increased grower profits in 86 per cent of cases. Our collaboration with the USDA National Soil Survey Lab continues to expand and be very productive. We have found that mid infrared spectroscopy (MIR) is useful as a predictor of soil carbonates as well as total C (r2 = 0.97) when compared with lab pressure calcimeter measurements.
Collectively presentations by our project members in the past fiscal year of the project have reached a broad audience. Below is a selected list. Wolfe DW. 3/14/13. Climate smart farming for healthy people and a healthy planet. (Keynote). McGill University Sustainability Symposium. Montreal, Canada. Wolfe DW. 3/2/13. Meeting the climate change challenge. (Keynote) Northeast Organic Farming Assoc (NOFA) Annual Conference. Wilton, CT. Comstock, JP. 2/19/13. Farming in a Changing Climate. IPM Academy, Michigan State University. Lansing, MI. Wolfe DW. 1/10/13. Farming success in an uncertain climate. (Keynote) Long Island Agriculture Forum, Cornell Coop. Ext. Riverhead, NY. Horton R. Jan 2013. CMIP5 global climate models and their use. NOAA Annual Meeting. San Diego, CA. Comstock, JP 1/16, 17/2013. From Spring Frost to Summer Drought: What's up with the Weather Corn Congress 2013, Cornell
Coop Ext, Batavia (16th) & Waterloo (17th) NY. Comstock, J 12/6/2012. Climate Change in the Mohawk Valley: Potential for Adaptation and Mitigation. NYS Cleaner Greener Communities (CGC) Mohawk Valley. Utica, NY Horton R. Dec 2012. NARCCAP climate data set and its use. American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA. Wolfe DW. 12/4/12. Challenges for agricultural adaptation and mitigation. US-Canadian Climate Change Collaboration Symposium. Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Woodbury P and Z Ahmed. Oct 2012. Regional analysis of soil carbon stocks under maize production: comparison of data sets and effects of management practices. International Annual Meetings of the American Soc of Agronomy, Crop Sci Soc of Amer, and Soil Sci Soc of Amer. Cincinnati, OH. Wolfe. DW 10/22/12. An integrative approach to carbon, nitrogen, and greenhouse gas accounting and management in corn production systems.
International Annual Meetings of the American Society of Agronomy and Soil Science Society of America. Cincinnati, OH Horton R. 5/29/12. Climate Information for Adaptation Planning: What spatial resolution is needed. Climate Adaptation Futures: Second International Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2012. University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. Wolfe D. 4/12/12. Transforming farm management for a changing climate. Plant Science Seminar Series. Michigan State University. PARTICIPANTS: Jonathan P Comstock, Research Support Specialist, Cornell Univ (project coordination, soil sampling and analysis) Sonam R Sherpa, Graduate Student, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis) Jeffrey Beam-Miller, Field/Lab Technician III, Cornell Univ (lab manager, soil sampling and analysis) Ryan Delvin, Undergraduate Student Help, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis) Zach Zussman-Dobbins, Undergraduate
Student Help, Cornell University (soil sampling and analysis) Jessica Leonard, Field/Lab Technician II, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis) Stefan Karkuf, Temp Field/Lab Technician, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis) Thomas Paul, Temp Field/Lab Technician, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis) Marc Barker, Temp Field/Lab Technician, Cornell Univer (soil sampling and analysis) Peter Woodbury, Senior Research Associate, Cornell Univ (management of geospatial analyses) Zia Ahmed, Research Associate, Cornell Univ (geospatial analyses) Richard Klotz, Graduate Student, Cornell Univ (economic modeling) Andrew Waxman, Graduate Student, Cornell Univ (economic modeling and data collection) Ram Gurung, Graduate Student, Colorado State Univ (DayCent model development) Amy Swan, Research Associate, Colorado State Univ (Field sampling & laboratory & database support) Robert Murphy,
Field/Lab Technician, Colorado State Univ (field sampling, laboratory processing) Karolien Denef, Research Associate, Colorado State Univ, project management, model testing) Steve Williams, Research Associate, Colorado State Univ (database support, model testing) Tara Baker, Field Technician, Colorado State Univ. (field sampling) Jake Betzen, Field Technician, Colorado State Univ (field sampling) Angela Yin Yee Kong, Associate Research Scientist, NASA-GISS, Columbia Univ ( field and laboratory support, synthesis of data, design of field sampling and coordination of project database) Radley Horton, Associate Research Scientist, NASA-GISS, Columbia Univ (climate modeling team manager) Dan Bader, Programmer, NASA-GISS, Columbia Univ (prepares climate projections) Richard Goldberg, Programmer, NASA-GISS, Columbia Univ (climate data management ) TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report
during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
<p>PROGRESS: 2011/04/01 TO 2012/03/31<br/>OUTPUTS: Our soil data will be shared with the USDA National Soil Survey Lab (running our MIR analyses) and will help to build their MIR data base and evaluate the accuracy of their broadly-based MIR calibrations for predicting total C and other soil characteristics. Further, we anticipate running a subset of our samples for black C in the laboratory of Johannes Lehmann, a project collaborator, and then estimate the percentage of total soil C that is black C across many of our intensively sampled sites. We are collaborating with Veris Industries, which makes a commercial on-the-go VNIR sensor that can be pulled through a field with a tractor to map the distribution of soil properties with great resolution. In 2011 they did intensive mapping at one of our Iowa farm sites where we are doing intensive sampling. We can help them in
evaluating the calibration of their equipment, and we will be evaluating the value of using on-the-go VNIR for characterizing field variability and required sample number for strategic soil sampling. In 2011 we built a diamond-tipped rotary corer for obtaining better samples for bulk density measurements on rocky soils. In April we will be meeting with USDA National Resource Inventory staff in the field (PA) to demonstrate the rotary corer and discuss methodology. An on-going evaluation of the Adapt-N tool for N recommendations (funded through NRCS-CIG and NY Farm Viability grants) involves many farmer collaborators who are also being recruited for participation in various aspects of this project, such as evaluation of greenhouse gas accounting tools and soil C assessment. The accomplishments and objectives for the PNM modeling group were presented briefly as part of presentations given
to the Iowa Soybean Association On-Farm Research annual conference (Feb. 16, 2012) and the National Association of Independent Crop Consultants annual meeting (Feb. 27, 2012). Other specific invited presentations during Year 1 included: Paustian K. July 19, 2011. Farm-level accounting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: maximizing efficiency of agricultural GHG mitigation strategies. SWCS Annual Meeting, Washington, DC . Paustian K. Oct 18, 2011. Farm-level accounting of GHG emissions: Can farmers be the new carbon accountants ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX. Wolfe D May 5, 2011. An integrated verification approach: geospatial analysis, biogeochemical models, and strategic soil sampling. The Role of Carbon Offsets in Climate Policy. Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future Symposium. Ithaca, NY. Wolfe D. October 9, 2011, New tools for carbon, nitrogen and greenhouse gas
accounting and management in corn cropping systems, USDA-NIFA: Climate and Corn-based Cropping Systems Conference, Chicago, IL. Wolfe D. October 20, 2011. New tools for carbon, nitrogen and greenhouse gas accounting and management in corn cropping systems, NOAA: Agricultural Decision Making with a Climate Perspective, Nebraska City, NE. Wolfe D. February 27, 2012. Transforming ecosystem and farm management for a changing climate. Ecology Seminar Series. Pennsylvania State University. State College, PA. PARTICIPANTS: NOTE: Does not include PD or co-PDS. Jonathan P Comstock, Research Support Specialist, Cornell Univ (project coordination, soil sampling and analysis). Sam Bosco, Graduate Student, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis). Sonam R Sherpa, Graduate Student, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis). Jeffrey Beam-Miller, lab manager, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis).
Ryan Delvin, Undergraduate Student Help, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis). Jessica Leonard, laboratory/field technician, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis). Stefan Karkuf, laboratory/field technician, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis). Thomas Paul, laboratory/field technician, Cornell Univ (soil sampling and analysis). Dr. Peter Woodbury, Senior Research Associate, Cornell Univ (management of geospatial analyses). Dr. Zia Ahmed, Research Associate, Cornell Univ (geospatial analyses). Richard Klotz, graduate student, Cornell Univ (economic modeling). Joel Landry, graduate student, Cornell Univ (economic modeling). Benjamin Leard, graduate student, Cornell Univ (economic modeling). Andrew Waxman, graduate student, Cornell Univ (economic modeling and data collection). Ram Gurung - PhD student, Colorado State Univ (DayCent model development). Amy Swan - Research
Associate, Colorado State Univ (Field sampling & laboratory & database support) . Karolien Denef - Research Associate, Colorado State Univ, ( project management, model testing). Steve Williams - Research Associate, Colorado State Univ (database support, model testing) . Angela Yin Yee Kong, Associate Research Scientist, NASA-GISS, Columbia Univ ( field and laboratory support, synthesis of data, design of field sampling and coordination of project database). Radley Horton, Associate Research Scientist, NASA-GISS, Columbia Univ (climate modeling team manager) . Dan Bader, Programmer, NASA-GISS, Columbia Univ (prepares climate projections). Richard Goldberg, Programmer, NASA-GISS, Columbia Univ (climate data management ). Reynir Winnan, intern, NASA-GISS ( climate data research). TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing
significant to report during this reporting period.