REMOTE SENSING BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS: DETECTING AND MONITORING LEAFY SPURGE POPULATIONS USING HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY AND DEEP LEARNING

?We propose to leverage satellite imagery to detect and monitor leafy spurge populations across a large fraction of the Northern Great Plains. This research will allow for cost-effective, rapid tracking of the spread and impact of this noxious weed. Our project will also reshape our understanding of the ecological and management factors that control invasion dynamics over geographic scales. The main goals of this project are to use high-resolution satellite imagery and deep learning models to (1) detect leafy spurge populations, especially in emerging areas of invasion, (2) track population dynamics over the last decade to develop better predictive models of range expansion, and (3) to determine the causes of biocontrol success vs. failure to guide immediate management.Objectives:Objective 1: Detect leafy spurge populations across the Great Plains from satellite images using deep learning:1A. We will use existing data from agencies to assess the transferability of our Minnesota-based leafy spurge model and determine the strengths and pitfalls for transference of previously built models.1B. Develop new robust models to detect populations across geographic regions that differ in habitat characteristics.Objective 2: Track population dynamics over the last decade and predict range infilling and range expansion:2A. We will use satellite imagery to track population growth/decline over a decade across the Northern Great Plains.2B. Use time-series data of leafy spurge population growth to develop demographic species distribution models (SDMs). These SDMs will identify areas at risk of invasion or that require greater management.Objective 3: Identify environmental factors that modulate biocontrol success to inform management strategies:3A. We will determine where and under which environmental conditions biocontrol efforts have succeeded in reducing population growth across the range.3B. We will use the analyses of environmental determinants of biocontrol to provide agencies with guidance on where to best implement biocontrol versus other management strategies