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<OL> <LI> Collecting, organizing and determining data needed to carry out or estimate simulation models; <LI> Establishing a baseline risk model of pathogen spread and human health costs; <LI> Identifying strategies in mitigation risk in pathogen dissemination along the entire goat meat supply chain. </ol> The emphases of this project match one of the University's long-term goals of helping under-served communities, especially minority groups. Hispanics and African Americans are the major consumers of goat meat in Georgia. Therefore, these two ethnic groups will be direct beneficiaries of this study. The risk assessment model, tailored specifically for goat meat, will identify pathogen-mitigating strategies in the supply chain. This approach will substantially enhance the comprehensive understanding of goat meat safety and concomitant costs by the proposed sensitivity analysis. Therefore, the project will provide powerful decision support in mitigating pathogen risk and decreasing human health costs. Thus, it will help to identify the cost effective ways to provide safer meats.
<P>NON-TECHNICAL SUMMARY: Food borne diseases is responsible for the loss of billions of dollars annually and has been a major public health concern for decades. The U.S. government has put forth great efforts to mitigate pathogen hazards that impose significant economic and health burdens but the problem still persist. The derived strategies have proven effective in reducing bacterial contamination but significant issues remain unresolved. The farm-to-table study procedure shows potential as a tool for comprehensive understanding of food borne illness and human health costs along the meat supply chain. This project will build a farm-to-table risk assessment model that supports a comprehensive understanding of risks involved and provide accurate estimates of human health costs along the meat supply chain. The model will be tailored specifically for goat meat. By using target analysis, stress analysis, and sensitivity analysis, the project will provide powerful decision support in mitigating pathogen risks and decreasing human health costs. The project will use a Delphi survey system for data collection and the data collected will be organized in a special database which will be public accessible. This method of data collection and management will help to fill the gap of information on goat meat and to speed up dissemination of food safety knowledge. With the support of the established model, it will be possible to identify risk factors, estimate human health costs, and find effective mitigating scenarios of significant value to the chain from the farm to consumers. The project will invite the participation of researchers from various disciplines (agricultural economics, computer science, animal science, microbiology). It is, therefore, a multiple disciplinary study. </P>
<P>APPROACH: The Delphi Survey, a database-driven website experimental design will be primary method employed to collect data for the project. The project will approach the safety of goat meat by using farm-to-table risk-assessment simulation models to analyze the data. </P>
<P>PROGRESS: 2012/10 TO 2013/09
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The journal publication uses a regional primary data set of consumer’s preferences for goat meat and factors influencing consumption. Of particular interest was the sample’s demand for the quality attribute, USDA inspections. This quality attribute of goat meat is a proxyl variable for food safety. The demand for this attributes with regard to consumption was significant across consumer types rated as current consumers, potential consumers, latent consumers and/or seasonal consumers. The paper presentation and published abstract are the result of analysis of USDA secondary data. This effort was an attempt to enhance understanding of producers marketing of certain classifications of animal and the market outlet and to determine if these selections are guided by cost/profit and consumer preferences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Assessment at the remaining risk factor levels, slaughter and processing level and distribution and consumption level is ongoing and will be completed before the next reporting period. These expert opinions will complete the data needs for the simulation model that will provide probability estimates of contamination risks along the supply chain. </P>
<P>IMPACT: 2012/10 TO 2013/09
What was accomplished under these goals? The project supports NIFA priority areas "Food Safety" and "Agricultural Economics and Rural Communities" and the goal to "Improve Food Safety for all Americans." Identification of The Delphi survey participants was completed. The Delphi participants, experts of assessing contamination incident along the goat meat supply chain, have completed the first assessment stage at the farm or initial production level. </P>