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ARS has only recently completed the sequencing of ~3,000 isolates of Campylobacter from the Iceland project. Up to an additional 1,000 isolates are still being processed and shall be phylogenetically analyzed. These analyses will be provided to Dr. Lowmans group for further system modeling, process risk modeling, and Bayesian network modeling using causal interference diagrams. These modeling components are complimentary to our research and shall be used to detail the complex relationships in poultry production and food safety in Iceland.
Approach: Using the data provided by ARS, the cooperator will organize the data by spatial, temporal, breeder, broiler, products, human case data, genetic sequencing data, and results of the multi-level analysis of farm, house and flock level risk factors. ARS contributions will be used to develop inference of causality and linkage with temporal and spatial evidence from the Iceland CSREES project. Much of the funding already provided to the cooperator will be used for modeling contract work by Paoli and others dependent upon the final sets of ARS provided phylogenetic information.