Systems Analysis for Risk Assessment

Microbial risk assessment in food supply chains, especially when considering, for example, Campylobacter and Salmonella in poultry or E Coli in cattle, is very complex because the systems themselves are complex. Such systems are extended in time and space, exposed to the environment, and poorly controlled. In order to permit a comprehensive risk assessment it is necessary to model the complete system. <P>
This project will provide for a systems analysis methodology to ensure that all relevant interactions are included. Network models provide an effective representation of the qualitative structure, different implementations of the quantification will be investigated and compared, including Bayesian networks, and Monte Carlo simulation. These will be assessed for their ability to describe the system, their performance with limited data, the speed and precision with which they can identify critical control points, and the ways in which the results of sampling and monitoring can be included. <P>The aim over three years is to build a strong base of tools and techniques that can be applied in future research. Existing links with microbiologists and epidemiologists at the Veterinary Laboratory Agency, Nottingham and Bristol universities and the Public Health Laboratory Service will be built on to provide knowledge, information and data.