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<OL> <LI>Trade: to evaluate proposals to advance the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations, with specific attention to 2007 farm bill alternatives and proposals for reform.<LI>Environment: to analyze the environmental impacts of biofuels on (a) land use in the U.S. and developing countries; (b) consequent water pollution impacts; (c) cellulosic and non-food alternatives as raw inputs; and (d) environment/trade interactions related to biofuel imports to the U.S. <LI>Agriculture: to re-examine the role of plant biotechnology in the food-fuel debate over biofuels, both (a) in terms of improved productivity of food cropping; (b) reduced environmental impacts of planted crops; and (c) developing non-food inputs to the biofuels sector.
Non-Technical Summary: This project focuses on international trade conflicts in agriculture, sustainability of bioduels and the role of plant biotechnology to break out of the food-fuel dilemma. The purpose is to provide trade policy recommendations, analyze biofuels policy and propose solutions to the food-fuel dilemma. <P> Approach: 1. Trade: evaluation of proposals through interviews with key participants in the trade and agricultural policy sphere, including joint collaboration with private sector, foundation, government representatives and colleagues (eg., Johnson, Tutweiller, Pearson, Senauer, Tiffany, Taff). Work with Johnson and Tutweiller will focus on Doha Round and Farm Bill alternatives, using interviews with government and private sector actors in the legislative and negotiating process. Consultation with Pearson will be on trade policy issues. Pearson is currently Chairman of the Federal Trade Commission. Work with Senauer and Tiffany will focus on biofuels and related trade matters, analyzing impacts of the 54 cent-per-gallon tariff on imported ethanol from federal trade data. Data will be drawn from interviews and federal trade statistics sources. Work with Taff will involve use of his energy simulation model to analyze alternative scenarios. 2. Environment: analysis of (a) shifts in land use from other crops to corn and soybeans and (b) their environmental consequences for soil loss and water pollution; (c) comparative consequences of various cellulosic and non-food alternatives; (d) environmental impacts of substituting imported biofuels for domestic sources, both in the U.S. and in exporting countries (eg., Brazil). Data will be drawn from U.S. Geological Survey and USDA sources as well as World Resources Institute data bases. The shift in land use from other crops to corn and soybeans will utilize USDA crop-reporting data on shifts in crop acreage. Comparative consequences for cellulosic and non-food alternative inputs will include cost analysis, environmental effects on land and water resources, and international environmental implications of shifts in land uses. 3. Agriculture: to re-examine the 2004-2005 inventory of the global diffusion of plant biotechnology undertaken for the Council on Biotechnology Information (CBI) with specific reference to laboratory experiments, field trials and commercialization of traits specific to the challenges posed by biofuels. These traits include (a) yield and quality improvements in food crops currently used as stocks (corn, soybeans, rapeseed, canola, oil palm) and (b) traits related to environmental impacts of alternatives stocks (tree crops, grasses). The extension of the 2004-2005 inventory will employ APHIS data sets on registration and field trials, but would focus on biofuel-related traits, including enzyme properties allowing more rapid conversion to ethanol or biodiesel fuels. Also considered would be biotech crops with a combination of these traits and more environmentally benign traits.